Spain leads both our model and the crowd — but we have them slightly underpriced at 16%. The 48-team format spooks traders into spreading money across more longshots, diluting the true favourites. Our composite has Spain (90), France (89) and Argentina (86) as a clear top tier worth ~51% combined; the market only gives them ~42%.

Our biggest disagreement is Argentina — the defending champions at just 10% feels like the market over-weighting their age and the Messi-farewell narrative. Our model rates their squad strength and tournament pedigree higher at 14%.

Portugal is our fade. At 11% market, the crowd is paying a Ronaldo premium our model does not support — we have them 6th at 8%. A Nations League title and a 41-year-old talisman do not equal a World Cup-winning structure.

Brazil are still favourites to win Group C — but 72% is too high given their injury situation. Neymar is a calf-injury doubt, Rodrygo is out with an ACL tear, and Estêvão was left off the squad entirely. Their composite score dropped from 80 to 74. Morocco — 2022 semi-finalists with a fully fit squad — deserve better than the crowd's 21%. Our model has this group meaningfully tighter: Brazil 60%, Morocco 30%. The crowd is anchoring on Brazil's name, not their current team sheet.

Mexico get a genuine home-field boost (+5 in our model) playing at the Estadio Azteca — so they should be favourites. But 63% slightly overstates it. South Korea (composite 56) are a well-organised side with a strong qualifying record, and our model gives them a better shot than the crowd's 35%. We have it Mexico 56%, South Korea 38%. Close, but the crowd is over-backing the hosts.